The Editorial View on the Canadian Snap Election
- The Political Register
- Mar 27
- 8 min read
Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has called a snap election, in a move that has been predicted for some time, with the legal timetable giving him until October to call a federal election. The election will take place on Monday 28th April. Whilst early, this snap election is at the perfect time for Carney who is still in the honeymoon phase of his premiership, having served for just over a week as Prime Minister. It also comes as Carney’s Liberal Party leads in the polls after a tumultuous last few months prior to his accession as leader. During this time the Conservatives, led by populist Pierre Poilievre, had made a comeback from years of liberal domination to a leading position in the polls. This shift in the polls has given Carney the perfect opportunity to call an election where he is expected to improve upon the current Liberal share of seats in the House of Commons.
Like the British system, Canada is a representative democracy that uses the first-past-the-post system without the direct election of the Prime Minister. Instead, Canada is split into 343 electoral districts or ridings, each electing a member of parliament to the Canadian House of Commons. Usually, a party will win more than the required 172 MPs to form a majority government. However, Canada is no stranger to minority governments, whereby the party with the most elected MPs does not reach the 172 mark, including the current Liberal Government that is aiming to secure its 4th consecutive term in office by improving on its pre-election share of 152 MPs.
At the previous election, the Liberal Party won 160 seats, short of the then majority needed of 170 ridings. Had the Liberals proceeded as a purely minority government, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would have struggled to get vital government votes through the house - such as budgets and even no-confidence votes which would cripple the government. This led them into negotiations with the New Democratic Party (NDP) and its leader, Jagmeet Singh, who agreed upon a confidence and supply agreement. The agreement focussed on the development of policy agendas on dental care for low-income individuals, a national prescription programme and the prioritisation of climate and housing policy.
The NDP describes itself as a social democratic party, with its members sitting centre-left/left-wing on the political scale. Whilst the NDP is one of the minor parties in this election, with the two big players being the Liberal Party and Conservative Party, they have often held significant influence in parliament, becoming the party that has kept Liberal minority governments in power. This influence has allowed them to try and push the Liberal Party towards their more left-leaning policies, including: a mixed economic approach, where they oppose both tax plans presented by Carney and Poilievre as help for millionaires rather than Canadian families; a broader welfare state wanting Canada’s universal healthcare system to remove its restrictions and charges on prescriptions, infertility treatment, dental, and mental healthcare; or its call on the Canadian government to recognise Palestine and end all arms sales to Israel while they illegally occupy Palestinian territory.
Jagmeet Singh and the NDP pulled out of their confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals last year. This was likely in preparation for the election, with Justin Trudeau’s and the Liberal Party’s falling popularity at the time and the NDP’s struggle to distance their brand from that of the Liberals. Something we will likely see with more radical policy proposals at this election.
The Political Register supports many of the policies of the NDP, especially those outlined above. However, the NDP is not in the strong place where it can lead Canada and improve the lives of Canadian families in government, they are instead best placed in the position they have held as a strong policy influence on a Liberal Party government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney.
The Canadian Liberal party has dominated Canadian politics throughout its history. The longest active party in the country, they governed Canada for almost 70 years in the 20th century. After a period of opposition from 2006-2015, the party returned to, and has remained in, government since 2015 under the leadership of Justin Trudeau and his promise of a new progressive era. However, the current landscape for the liberal party was almost unforeseeable 6 months ago. Justin Trudeau served Canada for ten years, leading his party to three consecutive election wins. During this time, Trudeau brought progress in a variety of areas, from gender equality in the cabinet to a national carbon tax and recreational cannabis legalisation. However, despite a recent boost in personal popularity following his response to the US trade war, the party had been trailing to the conservatives by 25% in the polls before his resignation. Today, the party now leads by 6% (ISPOS) following the response to the trade war and the accession of Mark Carney as leader. Carney won the Liberal leadership election with an extraordinary 86.84% of the vote, and has decided to call an early election on the back of his early momentum.
In keeping with this momentum, Carney has sought to define the party in his image by announcing a slew of new policies. Most significantly, the Liberals have announced a “middle class tax cut”, of 1% to the lowest tax percentage, benefitting more than 22 million Canadians. Furthermore, Carney has announced large new investments in the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), to push toward the 2% NATO target by 2030. Included in this is filling the 14,500 CAF member shortage with recruitment reform and a shipbuilding investment creating 21,400 jobs. This demonstrates that Carney will align with Europe in ramping up defence spending since America’s retreat from its global role. Additionally, the investment represents a focus on industry which counters the Conservatives’ big election focus. Thus, it appears that Carney is moving too fast to project his image onto the party, and so far has been effective in doing so.
One threat the Liberals do face is from the Bloc Quebecois, a separatist party which run exclusively in the Quebec region. Last year, Nanos Research had the Bloc as the leading party within Quebec, however, the Bloc have perhaps been the party most uniquely affected by Trump’s tariffs. Quebec has already had one aluminium plant close as a result of the tariffs, and the “51st state” claims from Trump have decreased support for Quebecois nationalism (BBC). Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet stands steadfast that the appetite for independence will “come roaring back”, but Nanos Research’s most recent polling has shown the Liberals surpassing the Bloc in Quebec. Quebecois independence may be a force that is here to stay, but balancing this with a unique groundswell in Canadian national pride will make this election a unique challenge for the Bloc.
Independence aside, the Bloc’s policy platform is broadly social-democratic. The party supports LGBTQ+ rights, abortion rights and the Kyoto Protocol. On economic policy, the party has previously called for using Canada’s budget surpluses to invest in public services, and to propose that single-parent families with two kids or more should not pay tax below $35,000 a year. Thus, the party’s supporters who are less ardent about separatism may drift over to the Liberals, as a result of their similar social stances and the economic differences between the parties being subsumed by the issue of tariffs dominating all economic debate.
The Canadian Conservative party was only formed in 2003, after a merger of the two big right-leaning parties, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative Party, into a ‘big tent’ party with members from across the right wing. The latter had suffered a historic defeat at the 1993 Canadian Federal Election, after 9 years of government led by Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, the party would lose 154 seats to have the lowest share of any major party of just 2. The merged Conservative party would go on to govern Canada again, with a strong parliamentary majority from 2006 to 2015. During which time they eliminated long gun registry and withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol - an early climate agreement. More positively, they introduced the Universal Child Care Benefit, helping families with the cost of raising children, and reducing taxes.
Pierre Poilievre, who would become Conservative leader in 2022, was appointed parliamentary secretary in 2006 and quickly gained a reputation as the then prime minister Stephen Harper’s attack dog. He has been the source of some controversy, being caught on a hot mic swearing at parliamentary members and making an inappropriate gesture in the chamber. He ran for conservative leader on the back of rising inflation and cost of living, blaming federal spending under the liberal government, something he still backs. Since a few months after his election, the Conservative party had been leading in polls, beating the liberals for the last two years through catchy slogans like “axe the tax” and “Justinflation” promoted through TikTok and X.
We have seen a strong rise in Canadian nationalism since Trump's inauguration due to the ongoing trade war and his patronisation of Canada as the '51st State’. This puts Poilievre at a significant disadvantage due to his perceived closeness to Trump. From his manifesto, we can expect a strong push to develop Canadian industry through expanding training halls, providing apprenticeship grants and large investment into major resource and energy projects. However, Poilievre's Trump-like economic plans of significantly low taxation, recently announcing a slash to income taxes and a rise in the tax-free allowance for seniors echoes the fiscal irresponsibility of Liz Truss.
As the campaign begins, this election comes with unprecedented poor relations with Canada's neighbouring super-power. Canadian-US economic ties are perhaps some of the strongest in the world, their economies are linked to the level that border state Maine, which produces 90% of the US’s Lobster supply, but has a poor processing industry, this results in a significant proportion of Maine Lobster catches being sent into Canada before returning to the United States. The ongoing Trump-fueled trade war between the two could see prices on products like this rise for both Americans and Canadians. The economy is going to be the big issue of this campaign as we saw in last year's US Presidential Election, leaders and candidates will be dropping their Trump-inspired images to show strength on the situation to align with the majority Canadian view on Trump, which has caused a significant drop in the polls for Trump-aligned Poilievre.
Conclusion: This election may only have two contenders for government, the Liberals with Mark Carney and the Conservatives with Pierre Poilievre, but there are two other significant parties in a race for influence over the victor. The Bloc Quebecois, while a significant contender as a regional party hoping for wider independence, has a limit on its influence and many Bloc voters who do not want to see a Poilievre-run government may choose to vote tactically at this election. The NDP’s support is strong and their radical policies will appeal to those who are dissatisfied with the status quo. Despite having the strongest policy option the NDP does not have the same level of expertise exhibited by Mark Carney, who has already gotten off to a great start as Prime Minister. In the event of no party receiving a majority, the NDP will hold the influence of deciding whether or not to go into coalition or confidence-supply agreement with Carney’s Liberals or force them to go at it alone. This election is not expected to be a landslide, but with Carney’s popularity, the Trump factor playing against Poilievre and the Liberal resurgence in recent polls, we expect Mark Carney and the Liberals to win a small but comfortable majority and to continue to lead Canada.
[Note: Policy and Party support by The Political Register are correct at the time of publishing. As things change throughout this election, manifestos are published, and candidates are announced the TPR View may change and this may be published through press releases or updated Editorial articles.]
