A Lowe Blow- Divisions in Reform
- Jack Walsh
- Mar 14
- 4 min read
Despite being a parliamentary party of just five MPs, the past week has seen the inner frictions in Reform UK’s coalition play out in the parliamentary party. The core split is between Nigel Farage, who is leading the party towards moderating into national electability and Rupert Lowe, who has become the figurehead of those who want the party to move to the right, toward their base.
Tensions became public when Lowe criticised Farage’s “messianic” leadership of the party as turning it into a protest force rather than a credible winning option. There is already something of an irony here, given in the Farage/Lowe split Farage represents the moderating role. However, any initial response from Farage went out the window when Lowe was removed from the party on allegations of derogatory comments towards female and disabled staffers. Immediately, Lowe fired back claiming the allegations were made public in response to his “reasonable and
constructive questions of Nigel and the Reform structure”. As of writing, Lowe is under police investigation over the allegations against him, which he claims, “are a witch hunt”.
However, if this week was the public fronting up of these tensions, they date back much further and represent the tensions between Reform’s further right base and Farage’s attempts to moderate for a national audience. The two most public of these divisions were the split over Tommy Robinson, and over mass deportations. First, Lowe has been willing to defend Robinson, if not directly call for his release from prison. Lowe in February of 2025 said Robinson “deserves credit for the good things he has done” pertaining to grooming gangs. Rhetorically
this is a significant split with Farage who for many years has been keen to put distance between himself and Robinson. This split has firmly cast Farage and Lowe as opposing sides of the party. Elon Musk came out against Farage’s leadership of Reform, over his refusal to call for Robinson’s freedom, and then later posted praise for Lowe on X. The Musk endorsement is again representative of the larger issue Musk is deeply popular with Reform’s base, but deeply unpopular in the wider country with YouGov placing Musk’s favourability within Reform at 51%,
It is this same split between prioritising the base and beliefs, or electoral chances and cleaning up moderate voters which divides Farage and Lowe. The same split is played out again on the issue of “mass deportation”. Again, Farage explicitly plays to the country at wide on this issue,
arguing that if “I call for mass deportations it will be all anyone talks about for the next twenty years” and that it is a “political impossibility”. Lowe meanwhile has claimed that if Reform have to deport over one million immigrants, then “so be it”. Lowe here, is attempting to push Reform in the direction of large radical right parties like Germany’s AFD, who have also called for mass deportations.
Fundamentally, this week has demonstrated a split that is going to define Reform moving forward. The choice of whether to moderate and be presentable to a wider electorate, or move rightward to infuse their base. Under Farage’s current leadership, Reform have attempted to present a more moderate face than parties such as the AFD in Germany. With the wave of radical right wing politics inspired by Trump, Reform can either gamble on that momentum increasing by playing to the right, or moderate to avoid the Conservatives consolidating voters Reform had targeted.
Of course, it cannot be understated that Lowe appears to have the personal approval of Elon Musk, in a way Farage does not. Given former Reform co-deputy leader Ben Habib (who quit in protest of Farage’s leadership) is already talking publicly about forming a new party, and Lowe seems set for a potential legal battle with Reform, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that a further right party opens up. In this instance, it would be consistent with Musk’s previous behaviour to offer at least verbal support to this party on X. If this is the case, the success of Farage’s “messianic style” will be put to the test. Will loyal supporters choose Farage and the chance of electoral success, or Lowe, Habib and Musk with further right-wing policy positions?
What seems clear is that the split within Reform is here to stay. If the party continues to mirror the image of Farage, Lowe will always remain the figurehead of those on the hard right who are angered by Farage’s perceived moderation. Since the election, Reform has been able to maintain its momentum and even take the lead in some polling. The choice that faces them now is how to break the glass ceiling of 25-27% they have hit in recent YouGov polling. For Farage, this has been to target the weakness of Badenoch's Conservatives. Now, for the first time, Reform may face a threat from their right. Thus, it may risk the base, but Farage may just have been handed his ideal opportunity to present a moderate face and finally put distance between himself and the hard right- whether he wants to do this remains to be seen.
Further Reading and Sources:
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breakaway-rightwing-party
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